Stainless steel - easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term

Domestically, Caixin China's manufacturing PMI fell 1.5 percentage points to 51.5 in January 2021, the lowest since July 2020, but it is still in the expansion range for the ninth consecutive month. The supply and demand of manufacturing industry continued to expand, but the speed slowed significantly; The overseas epidemic has repeatedly led to the reduction of orders of foreign trade enterprises, which has significantly curbed foreign demand. China's official manufacturing PMI in January was 51.3, expected to be 51.3, and the previous value was 51.9; Non-manufacturing PMI was 52.4, down from 55.7, the second consecutive month of decline; The PMI of the service industry was 52.4, with the previous value of 55.7, the largest decline since February last year. In December 2020, the CPI rose to 100.2, with a year-on-year increase of 0.2%.

Overseas, many countries strengthened epidemic control. The US House of Representatives approved the budget coordination plan of the COVID-19 Relief Act. At the beginning of February, the Federal Reserve frequently mentioned the reduction of bond purchase, and market concerns rose.

On the whole, domestic consumption is still the "ballast stone" of stable economic operation, import and export performance is eye-catching, and the domestic economy is gradually getting rid of the impact of the epidemic, and the overall situation is improving. Overseas, monetary policy in Europe and the United States continues to be loose, and the European Central Bank intends to raise the expectation of interest rate reduction. The expectation of fiscal stimulus of the Biden government still exists, and the market is still optimistic.

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The supply of stainless steel is tight and the demand is good. There is a long opportunity for nickel price

The output of global nickel ore may increase significantly in 2021, but Indonesia will be banned again in 2020, and due to the transition from Indonesia to a NPI producer, the possibility of recovering exports in the future is very small. However, the problem of the decline in the grade of the Philippine ore can not be solved. At present, the domestic nickel ore is likely to continue to be tight in 2021. The cost of Indonesia's NPI may be pushed up by the imposition of Indonesia's domestic trade benchmark or enforcement. Under the condition that domestic smelting is restricted by the ore side and the NPI import cost may rise again, the supply side may support the nickel price.

2022

12-07

Effect of Nickel on Smelting Cost of Stainless Steel

Cost comparison of high nickel iron and nickel plate: compared with pure nickel, the advantages of high nickel pig iron are mainly reflected in its ability to provide steelmaking pig iron. The price of steel-making pig iron is 2530 yuan/ton, taking 12% grade of high nickel pig iron as an example, for example, the price is 1380 yuan/nickel. For high-nickel iron, the value of steelmaking pig iron presented by each nickel point is 181 yuan. That is to say, if the quotation of high nickel pig iron is within 181 yuan/nickel higher than that of nickel plate, high nickel pig iron still has cost advantage.

2022

12-07

The output of crude stainless steel in the first three quarters of this year decreased by 2.30% year-on-year

From January to September 2020, the national output of crude stainless steel was 21973500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 516200 tons or 2.30%. Among them, the output of Cr-Ni stainless steel was 10.765 million tons, an increase of 24300 tons or 0.23% year on year, and its share increased by 1.23 percentage points to 48.99% year on year; The output of Cr-Mn stainless steel was 6.910 million tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 764700 tons and 9.96%, and its share decreased by 2.68 percentage points to 31.45%; The output of Cr series stainless steel was 4.1645 million tons, an increase of 226800 tons or 5.76% year on year, and its share increased by 1.44 percentage points to 18.95% year on year; The output of duplex stainless steel was 134226 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 2649 tons and 1.94%, and its share was 0.61%, which remained unchanged.

2022