The supply of stainless steel is tight and the demand is good. There is a long opportunity for nickel price

The output of global nickel ore may increase significantly in 2021, but Indonesia will be banned again in 2020, and due to the transition from Indonesia to a NPI producer, the possibility of recovering exports in the future is very small. However, the problem of the decline in the grade of the Philippine ore can not be solved. At present, the domestic nickel ore is likely to continue to be tight in 2021. The cost of Indonesia's NPI may be pushed up by the imposition of Indonesia's domestic trade benchmark or enforcement. Under the condition that domestic smelting is restricted by the ore side and the NPI import cost may rise again, the supply side may support the nickel price.

In terms of downstream stainless steel, China is expected to have an increase of 8% in 2021, about 2.55 million tons of physical volume, and about 3.06 million tons of new capacity. Indonesia will also increase its output by about 980000 tons, with an increase of 36.8%. The increase of stainless steel production will still provide a support for nickel price. However, domestic stainless steel may begin to transform to high-end, which is mostly 300 series due to price restrictions. While countries around the world have put forward new energy vehicle penetration plans, and new energy consumption is improving. In the context of global economic recovery, the new energy vehicle industry will inevitably increase the demand for primary nickel. In terms of demand, the resonance of new and old kinetic energy has a great effect on the nickel price.

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Effect of Nickel on Smelting Cost of Stainless Steel

Cost comparison of high nickel iron and nickel plate: compared with pure nickel, the advantages of high nickel pig iron are mainly reflected in its ability to provide steelmaking pig iron. The price of steel-making pig iron is 2530 yuan/ton, taking 12% grade of high nickel pig iron as an example, for example, the price is 1380 yuan/nickel. For high-nickel iron, the value of steelmaking pig iron presented by each nickel point is 181 yuan. That is to say, if the quotation of high nickel pig iron is within 181 yuan/nickel higher than that of nickel plate, high nickel pig iron still has cost advantage.

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The output of crude stainless steel in the first three quarters of this year decreased by 2.30% year-on-year

From January to September 2020, the national output of crude stainless steel was 21973500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 516200 tons or 2.30%. Among them, the output of Cr-Ni stainless steel was 10.765 million tons, an increase of 24300 tons or 0.23% year on year, and its share increased by 1.23 percentage points to 48.99% year on year; The output of Cr-Mn stainless steel was 6.910 million tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 764700 tons and 9.96%, and its share decreased by 2.68 percentage points to 31.45%; The output of Cr series stainless steel was 4.1645 million tons, an increase of 226800 tons or 5.76% year on year, and its share increased by 1.44 percentage points to 18.95% year on year; The output of duplex stainless steel was 134226 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 2649 tons and 1.94%, and its share was 0.61%, which remained unchanged.

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